Methodology
How we rate, price and grade picks
Every EuroPicks recommendation is the output of a repeatable process. We publish it here so readers can hold us accountable on the track record.
1. Data inputs
We start from expected goals (xG), shot quality, defensive structure, recent form (last 6 matches weighted), injuries/suspensions, lineup news, rest days, travel, and historical head-to-head. Market prices from major European books are tracked from open to close.
2. Model probabilities
We convert inputs into a probability for each market (1X2, BTTS, Over/Under, AH). Our model is recalibrated weekly against actual outcomes. Edge = model probability − implied probability from closing odds.
3. Value & confidence
A pick is published only when edge ≥ 3% at a price available at two or more European books at time of writing. Confidence (1–10) is a function of edge size and model agreement; Banker picks require ≥ 8/10.
4. Stake sizing
All ROI calculations use 1 unit = 1% of bankroll, flat stakes. We provide a Kelly Criterion calculator for readers who prefer fractional Kelly; we recommend ¼ Kelly or smaller.
5. Grading & settlement
Picks are graded Won / Lost / Void / Push within 30 minutes of the official full-time result. Pushed lines and voided legs are excluded from ROI. We do not retroactively edit graded picks.
6. Disclosures
Bookmaker links are affiliate links and may earn us a commission. Editorial selection of picks is independent. Sponsored bookmaker slots are labelled. Past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+ only — gamble responsibly.